9:00PM BST 01 Sep 2012
Whatever the outcome of the American presidential election, one thing is
certain: the fighting of it will be the most significant political event of the
decade. Last week’s Republican national convention sharpened what had been until
then only a vague, inchoate theme: this campaign is going to consist of the
debate that all Western democratic countries should be engaging in, but which
only the United States has the nerve to undertake. The question that will demand
an answer lies at the heart of the economic crisis from which the West seems
unable to recover. It is so profoundly threatening to the governing consensus of
Britain and Europe as to be virtually unutterable here, so we shall have to rely
on the robustness of the US political class to make the running.
What is being challenged is nothing less than the most basic premise of the
politics of the centre ground: that you can have free market economics and a
democratic socialist welfare system at the same time. The magic formula in which
the wealth produced by the market economy is redistributed by the state – from
those who produce it to those whom the government believes deserve it – has gone
bust. The crash of 2008 exposed a devastating truth that went much deeper than
the discovery of a generation of delinquent bankers, or a transitory property
bubble. It has become apparent to anyone with a grip on economic reality that
free markets simply cannot produce enough wealth to support the sort of
universal entitlement programmes which the populations of democratic countries
have been led to expect. The fantasy may be sustained for a while by the
relentless production of phoney money to fund benefits and job-creation
projects, until the economy is turned into a meaningless internal recycling
mechanism in the style of the old Soviet Union.
Or else democratically elected governments can be replaced by puppet
austerity regimes which are free to ignore the protests of the populace when
they are deprived of their promised entitlements. You can, in other words,
decide to debauch the currency which underwrites the market economy, or you can
dispense with democracy. Both of these possible solutions are currently being
tried in the European Union, whose leaders are reduced to talking sinister
gibberish in order to evade the obvious conclusion: the myth of a democratic
socialist society funded by capitalism is finished. This is the defining
political problem of the early 21st century.
Mitt Romney had been hinting, in an oblique, undeveloped way, at this line of
argument as he moved tentatively toward finding a real message. Then he took the
startling step of appointing Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate, and the
earth moved. If Romney was the embodiment of the spirit of a free market, Ryan
was its prophet. His speech at the convention was so dangerous to the Obama
Democrats, with their aspirations toward European-style democratic socialism,
that they unleashed their “fact checkers” to find mistakes (“lies”) in it.
(Remember the old Yes Minister joke: “You can always accuse them of errors of
detail, sir. There are always some errors of detail”.) When Romney and Ryan
offer their arguments to the American people, they are, of course, at an
advantage over almost any British or European politician. Contrary to what many
know-nothing British observers seem to think, the message coming out of Tampa
was not Tea Party extremism. It was just a reassertion of the basic values of
American political culture: self-determination, individual aspiration and
genuine community, as opposed to belief in the state as the fount of all social
virtue. Romney caught this rather nicely in his acceptance speech, with the
comment that the US was built on the idea of “a system that is dedicated to
creating tomorrow’s prosperity rather than trying to redistribute today’s.” Or
as Marco Rubio put it in his speech, Obama is “trying ideas that people came to
America to get away from”.
So it would be deeply misleading to imply that this campaign will be a
contest between what Britain likes to call “progressive” politics and some
atavistic longing for a return to frontier America where everybody made a
success of his own life with no help from anybody but his kith and kin. In the
midst of the impassioned and often nasty debate about the future of health care,
in which Ryan was depicted as a granny-killer, there has been some serious
Republican thinking about the universal provision of medical care for pensioners
(or “seniors” as they are called in the US). Because, you see, the debate over
there has gone way beyond welfare reform: the need to restrict benefit
dependency among the underclass is an argument that has been won. What is at
issue now is much more politically contentious: universal entitlements such as
comprehensive Medicare and social security are known to be unaffordable in their
present form. Ryan, the radical economic thinker, suggests a solution for
Medicare in the form of a voucher system. Patients could choose from competing
health providers, with a ceiling on the cost of procedures and treatments,
instead of simply being given blanket no-choice care. Thus, the government would
get better value for money, and individuals would have more say in their own
treatment. Now why doesn’t anybody here think of applying that mechanism to the
NHS? Oh, yes, some people have – but nobody in power will listen to them.
So how effective will all this turn out to be? Can Romney and Ryan reawaken
the self-belief in American independence and real community solidarity? Quite
possibly, but the odds are always in favour of the incumbent in US presidential
elections. There is, however, a wild card in this game. I suspect that in 2008 a
great many voters of good conscience would have felt the moral force of voting
for the first black president, in order to exorcise the nation’s hideous racial
history. But having proved that America is no longer a land of bigots, they will
not feel it necessary to make that point again. Now they will be able to judge
Mr Obama as they would any other political leader, and the US will truly have
arrived at post-racial politics.
But in the course of this campaign, however it concludes, we are all going to get an education in what it might be possible to say if economic reality was actually confronted. Mr Ryan wound up his acceptance speech for the vice-presidential nomination with the chorus, “Our nation needs this debate. We want this debate. We will win this debate.” Some of us would like to have that debate here. We even think we might have a chance of winning it.
But in the course of this campaign, however it concludes, we are all going to get an education in what it might be possible to say if economic reality was actually confronted. Mr Ryan wound up his acceptance speech for the vice-presidential nomination with the chorus, “Our nation needs this debate. We want this debate. We will win this debate.” Some of us would like to have that debate here. We even think we might have a chance of winning it.
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