Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Friday, 21 May 2021.
ADMIN NOTE: With wildfire and hurricane season upon us, I’ve included three new graphics for hurricane, wildfire, and hazard outlooks. These will be included as necessary, whenever significant hazards materialize.
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- In Focus: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict spills over
- Situational Awareness
- Russia-NATO SITREP
- China SITREP
- Far Left Activity Rollup & Outlook
- Upcoming Event Calendar
InFocus: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict spills over
Over the past week, social media has been awash with videos showing fights break out between pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian protestors in New York City and Los Angeles, among other cities. In some instances, Jews have been harangued and assaulted by Palestinian mobs. A video posted yesterday showed an incendiary device, what appears to be some kind of firework, being tossed into a crowd of Jewish bystanders.
Notably absent is 24/7 news coverage of the ongoing fighting. It’s become a worn out cliche, however, if these individuals had been wearing red hats, we’d be seeing calls for Congressional investigations.
For now, the Israelis and Palestinians have declared a ceasefire, which may dampen the domestic situation after this weekend’s protests. We’ve observed vague and limited threats made online against synagogues, as well as some actual cases of vandalism. The risk of domestic violence would rise if either side violates the ceasefire.
Back in 2020, I reported on efforts in New York City to restart the Jewish Defense League, a right wing group the FBI investigated for acts of terrorism back in the 1970s and 1980s. The FBI labeled the group an extremist organization in 2001, after its leader was assassinated and some members were convicted on terrorism charges for attacks against Muslims. Last year, organizers tried to revive the group after a rash of attacks against Jews, including a machete attack during a Hanukkah party by a black anti-Semitic assailant.
I bring this up because racial and ethnic tensions run much deeper than the “white versus minority” paradigm often parroted by the mainstream media. And, more importantly, this is another avenue for violence in the country’s ongoing low intensity conflict. Notably, in his manual on Fourth Generation Warfare, Bill Lind warns that, “All over the world, citizens of states are transferring their primary allegiance away from the state to other entities: to tribes, ethnic groups, religions, gangs, ideologies, and ’causes.'” This causes problems in multi-ethnic and multicultural states — I just reported on what’s going on in France earlier this week — as the fabric of society begins to tear, often due to economic, social, and political strife. There’s much more of that to come. It’s a good reminder that America’s diversity also brings with it a diverse assortment of foreign tensions, which will contribute to domestic conflict and instability. – M.S.
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
FACTORIES: General factory output remains adequate across the Rust Belt but the recovery momentum is slowing. Supply bottlenecks, easing demand (due to increased prices) and labor shortages are credited with reducing the pace of recovery. More than 40% of Philadelphia’s manufacturing orders are behind schedule as the paid for raw materials has increased an average of 75% across all manufacturing. The cost is being passed along to consumers through increased lead time and a 40% rise in client prices.
DOT: Jamming or spoofing of GPS-enabled devices may become commonplace in the US, according to Congressional testimony. From direct satellite targeting and cyber attacks on GPS users to on-the-ground counter-UAV equipment, the Department of Transportation is learning from the US military’s experience in Syria. The shared Russian-US battlespace shows Russia’s willingness to use sophisticated electronic and cyber warfare methods to disable American UAVs, reportedly hampering US combat operations. The DOT projects widespread GPS interference to coincide with direct cyber attacks on other critical infrastructure (like pipelines or transformers). The DOT offered no trigger or timeline, however, the likelihood is virtually certain to increase during times of crisis or conflict. The domestic impacts are for all economic vehicles utilizing GPS including; shipping & logistics, utilities, telecommunications networks, and significant portions of the agriculture sector. (AC: Losing GPS would shut down much of the country, and the US has DoD-only survivable solutions to facilitate a national recovery. In a conflict, defense officials expect the Chinese to disrupt the communications and information environment by attacking U.S. satellites, which directly contribute to GPS disruption. – D.M.)
CAPITOL: The National Guard Capitol deployment is slated to end on Sunday. The National Guard presence around D.C. was initially in response to the Jan 6th Capitol breach. Several lawmakers and states questioned the specific and credible threats which required thousands of troops and enhanced fencing around the Capitol. No specific threat has been communicated to lawmakers by Secretary of Defense Austin, but the new precedent set will have long-term consequences for domestic National Guard use. (AC: Political appointees and decision-makers inside the Congress and Executive departments will likely use threats against political opposition in the future to intimidate and physically control territory with troops. In 12-24 months the expected changes to the culture at DoD should be complete from a policy standpoint, providing a more ideologically aligned force to the current political leadership. – D.M.)
SPUTNIK: During a House hearing on the Army’s funding priorities, several lawmakers brought up countering influence operations domestically. When asked about the prevalence of Russian media in the United States, Army Chief of Staff Gen. McConville said his concern is the information being produced, which could shape public opinion. The Defense Department continues to struggle with domestic multi-domain threats despite expanded authorities and requirements in recent appropriations bills. (AC: U.S. Cyber Command’s leading role in addressing the domestic information environment demonstrates a fundamentally flawed approach by the US which creates extraordinary blind spots. Until recently, RT & Sputnik had more content uploaded to YouTube than any other media organization worldwide. – D.M.)
HURRICANE SEASON: It’s that time of year when tropical depressions start developing and turning into hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center is reporting two disturbances, one of which (red) is expected to continue developing over the next five days. The NHC expects 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes this season. We’ll post the most recent NHC outlook daily, as required.
WILDFIRE SEASON: Drought conditions are leading to elevated and critical wildfire outlooks across the Southwest, according to the National Weather Service.
HAZARDS: The Federal Emergency Management Agency lists a number of hazards over the next week (23-27 , including a likelihood of flooding across southwest Texas and southwest Louisiana.
RUSSIA-NATO SITREP
Russia recently replaced Sweden as the rotating chair of the Arctic Council. Participants in the Arctic summit agreed to improve environmental protections for the region and ensure the space remains free for economic cooperation, not militarization. Secretary of State Blinken issued strong and direct words before the summit, but unsurprisingly took a different tone during the event. A State Department spokesman said the United States is actively seeking a more stable and predictable relationship with Moscow. This echoes a similar sentiment by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov during and after the summit. “We are ready to be friends with the West…The well-being of our citizens is the main goal of foreign policy,” he said. All eyes will be on the upcoming NATO summit in mid-June and the undated meeting between Presidents Biden and Putin as both sides express a desire to normalize relations despite significant gaps in policy goals.
CHINA SITREP
The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAA) concluded a round of missile defense exercises and tested one of its upgraded missile systems in a simulated confrontation between “red and blue” forces. During the exercise, a PLAA brigade utilizing the new HQ-9 missile system successfully shot down four target drones. The latest HQ-9 is a vertical launch, medium and long-range ground-to-air missile defense system capable of engaging targets up to 250 kilometers (~155 miles) away. In a statement about the exercises, PLAA Commander Du Tao said, “[We] want to learn how to protect and maintain the new weapon system under rugged surroundings, as well as to better camouflage it and … try all efforts to fulfill our task. ”
Since 2016, the PLAA and Navy have deployed these systems to multiple artificial islands in the South China Sea and onboard the latest Type 052D guided-missile destroyers. In January this year, Timothy Heath, a security specialist with the Rand Corporation, raised alarms over China’s development of the JL-3 ballistic missile. Referring to China’s missile development programs, he stated, “Together the PLA’s conventional and nuclear capability raises the risk and cost of any U.S. fight with China. The goal is to convince the U.S. that such a fight is not worth the risk, allowing China to ‘win’ its confrontation with neighbors like Taiwan ‘without fighting’ the U.S.” China’s increasingly adept missile systems — offensive and defensive — will continue to increase the cost to American forces in the event of a military conflict. Taiwan and, increasingly, the Philippines are at risk of Chinese military action under this umbrella of missile deterrence in the Pacific. – M.B.
LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT INTSUM
Far Left Activity Rollup & Outlook
Portland, Oregon
Size: Approximately 75 on foot
Activity: Black Lives Matter (BLM) activists and Antifa militants marched and demanded “justice for Patrick Kimmons.” They chanted “f*** back the blue, back the black.” According to reports, the event remained peaceful.
Location: downtown
Time: Thursday, 20 MAY
FUTURE
Tacoma, Washington
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with the Tacoma Mutual Aid Collective (TMAC) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: University of Washington Tacoma (Pacific Avenue)
Time: 1PM; Friday, 21 MAY
Oregon City, Oregon
Size: TBD
Activity: Antifa militants based in Portland and Salem are organizing a direct action against a “U.S. flag waving event.” Militants with Fascist Free 503 stated, “Oregon City is allowing fascists to continue to grow [their] weekly flag wave. If we don’t put a stop to it they will command more control!”
Location: Clackamas Community College (19600 Molalla Avenue)
Time: 4PM; Friday, 21 MAY
Portland, Oregon
Size: TBD
Activity: BLM activists are organizing a “car caravan protest”
Location: Albina Avenue
Time: 130PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Portland, Oregon
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest. An event at Peninsula Park earlier on the same day is being denounced as a “collaborator” event after Mayor Ted Wheeler (D) announced his support for the protest.
Location: City Hall (1200 SW 5th Avenue)
Time: 3PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Honolulu, Hawaii
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) are organizing Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Ala Moana Satellite City Hall (Ala Moana Boulevard & Atkinson Drive)
Time: 7PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Oakland, California
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with the Arab Resource & Organizing Center (AROC) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest. They are specifically focusing on preventing the Israeli Zim-operated commercial vessel from docking. The specific time of the event is pending on when the vessel is expected to come into port.
Location: Port of Oakland
Time: TBD; Saturday-Sunday, 22-23 MAY
Fremont, California
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with American Muslims for Palestine (AMP) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Fremont Main Library (39707 Paseo Padre Parkway)
Time: Time; Sunday, 23 MAY
FUTURE
Missoula, Montana
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with Montanans in Solidarity with Palestine (MSP) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Missoula County Courthouse (200 W Broadway Street)
Time: 3PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Denver, Colorado
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with Act 4 Palestine Colorado (A4PC) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest. They will march after an initial demonstration at the Capitol.
Location: Colorado Capitol (West steps, 200 E Colfax Avenue), 16th Street Mall
Time: 4PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Flagstaff, Arizona
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protests. Posters for the event feature burning American flags and Palestinians with slingshots.
Location: Heritage Square (6 W Aspen Avenue)
Time: 6PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
FUTURE
Fargo, North Dakota
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with Tri-State Palestinian Solidarity are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Island Park (302 7th Street S)
Time: 4PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Size: TBD
Activity: Black Lives Matter (BLM) activists with Change is Coming (CIC) are organizing a “George Floyd 1 Year Anniversary Solidarity Rally.”
Location: Gateway Park (1 1st Street S)
Time: 1230; Saturday-Sunday, 22-23 MAY
Chicago, Illinois
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Congress Plaza Garden North (Michigan Avenue & E Ida B. Wells Drive)
Time: 3PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Carbondale, Illinois
Size: TBD
Activity: Black Lives Matter (BLM) activists are organizing a “George Floyd Weekend” memorial protest.
Location: Evergreen Park (1205 Pleasant Hill Road)
Time: 12PM; Saturday-Sunday, 22-23 MAY
Kansas City, Missouri
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with Palestinian Lives Matter (PLM) and KCMO Intifada are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: J.C. Nichols Memorial Fountain (50 W 47th Street)
Time: 5PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Tulsa, Oklahoma
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: S Memorial Drive & E 71st Street
Time: 4PM; Saturday, 23 MAY
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: 401 E California Avenue (Bricktown)
Time: 12PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
San Antonio, Texas
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: The Alamo (300 Alamo Plaza)
Time: 6PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Size: TBD
Activity: Black Lives Matter (BLM) activists with Visual Black Justice and the George Floyd Memorial Foundation are organizing an “inaugural” protest for “George Floyd Week.”
Location: Hennepin County Government Center (300 S 6th Street)
Time: 4PM; Sunday, 23 MAY
Dallas, Texas
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with the Palestinian Youth Movement (PYM), Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), the Dallas Palestine Coalition (DPC), and American Muslims for Palestine (AMP) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Dallas City Hall (1500 Marilla Street)
Time: 2PM; Sunday, 23 MAY
New Orleans, Louisiana
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with the Muslim Youth of New Orleans (MYNO) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: 219 Loyola Avenue (near Duncan Plaza)
Time: 5PM; Sunday, 23 MAY
New York City, New York
Size: Approximately 75 on foot
Activity: Black Lives Matter (BLM) activists marched to celebrate the birthday of Malcolm X. They harassed business owners and forced them to close for the day. They claimed that businesses were notified prior to the day and that being open was a sign of disrespect.
Location: 25th Street
Time: Wednesday, 19 MAY
New York City, New York
Size: Approximately 200 on foot
Activity: Far Left Palestinian supporters clashed with pro-Israel protesters after they stole an Israeli flag. New York City Police Department (NYPD) officers rushed the Palestinian supporters and made multiple arrests after the fights broke out. The Palestinian supporters returned a second time and threw projectiles at pro-Israel demonstrators, threw fireworks at pedestrians in the Diamond District nearby, and assaulted people dining outdoors later in the night. One group of Palestinian supporters chanted “there is only one solution, intifada revolution!.”
Location: Times Square, Diamond District
Time: Thursday, 20 MAY
New York City, New York
Size: Approximately 1,000+ on foot
Activity: Black Lives Matter (BLM) activists marched and demanded “all charges be dropped.” (it is not clear what case they were referring to) and additional stimulus checks from the government. They also denounced the police and chanted “no good cops in a racist system.” The event appears to have remained peaceful.
Location: Washington Square Park, Manhattan
Time: Thursday, 20 MAY
Elizabeth City, North Carolina
Size: Approximately 50 on foot
Activity: BLM activists marched, demanded “justice” for Andrew Brown Jr. and a federal investigation into the police-involved shooting.
Location: Erhinghaus Street, Brooks Avenue
Time: Thursday, 20 MAY
Graham, North Carolina
Size: Approximately 50 on foot
Activity: BLM activists protested “NC Confederate Day” and demanded the removal of the Graham Confederate Statue. According to reports, the event remained peaceful.
Location: Wyatt Outlaw Park, City Hall
Time: Thursday, 20 MAY
FUTURE
Nashville, Tennessee
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with Free Palestine Nashville (FPN) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Estes Kefauver Federal Building (801 Broadway)
Time: 4PM; Friday, 21 MAY
Portland, Maine
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with the Maine chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: City Hall (389 Congress Street)
Time: 1PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Grand Rapids, Michigan
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Monument Park (Fulton Street W & Division Avenue N)
Time: 12PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Binghamton, New York
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists and university students are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Binghamton University, Academic A Building (Connector Road & West Drive)
Time: 11AM; Saturday, 22 MAY
New York City, New York
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with NY 4 Palestine (NY4P) and Within Our Lifetime (WOL) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Queens Boulevard & 46th Street (Sunnyside, Queens)
Time: 1PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
New Brunswick, New Jersey
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with New Labor, Anakbayan Rutgers, Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), and members of the Central New Jersey chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Rutger University Student Center (126 College Avenue)
Time: 330PM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Flagstaff Hill, Schenley Park (1 Schenley Drive)
Time: 11AM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Rittenhouse Square (210 W Rittenhouse Square)
Time: 11AM; Saturday, 22 MAY
Worcester, Massachusetts
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with Ansaar of Worcester are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest. They are also pushing for socialist policies and the elimination of capitalism in solidarity with the Socialist Struggle Movement (SSM) in Palestine.
Location: City Hall (455 Main Street)
Time: 11AM; Sunday, 23 MAY
Boston, Massachusetts
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with the Boston Socialist Alternative (BSA)
Location: Copley Square Park (560 S Boylston Street)
Time: 12PM; Sunday, 23 MAY
Garden City, New York
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with Together We Will (TWW) and members of the Long Island chapter of the Party for Socialism & Liberation (PSL) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest
Location: Rep. Kathleen Rice’s (R-NY) office (229 7th Street)
Time: 3PM; Sunday, 23 MAY
New York City, New York
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with North Bronx Racial Justice (NBRJ) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Van Cortlandt Park, Bronx (6115 Broadway)
Time: 1PM; Sunday, 23 MAY
Louisville, Kentucky
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left activists with Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) are organizing a Palestinian solidarity protest.
Location: Waterfront Park (129 River Road)
Time: 3PM; Sunday, 23 MAY
Analyst Comment: Socialist political groups, BLM activists, and various pro-Palestinian groups continue to organize solidarity protests across the country. The majority of protests continue to be located in the East, where the largest concentrations of Muslims reside in the United States. While many of these protests continue to draw large crowds, New York City stands out as the most violent over this particular issue. They have continued to push Congress to divest from Israel and for a general strike, but no major action has materialized on either.
BLM activists in multiple cities are making preparations for “George Floyd Week” next week surrounding the one year anniversary of his death. We have detailed some events that are being organized for this weekend already. While protests in Elizabeth City, North Carolina have remained largely small and peaceful over the last week, a wave of Floyd related support next week could boat turnout and bring in more activists into the city in support. We are tracking several large events in Minneapolis and other cities next week that all have the potential for clashes with law enforcement and rioting. – M.B.
Upcoming Event Calendar
26 May: 2017 Stabbing memorial march (Antifa/YLF) (Portland, OR)
22-29 May: “George Floyd Week” events (Antifa/BLM) (multiple cities)
— END REPORT
M.S. indicates analyst commentary from Mike Shelby
M.B. indicates analyst commentary from Max Baer
D.M. indicates analyst commentary from Dustin Mascorro
No comments:
Post a Comment